The Presidency / The First Year

Gold plate on back of chair that says "the president"

Joe Biden at one year

Presidential experts evaluate the 46th president's first year in office

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Donald Trump at one year

White House veterans and Miller Center scholars evaluate the 45th president's first 365 days

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First Year Project Introduction

Watch this overview of the First Year Project

World map with arrows symbolic of trade

Trade

Make trade great again

As the Trump Administration moves past the rhetoric of the campaign to take actions to support the American economy, it should pursue a three-pronged strategy to bolster domestic gains from international trade.
Christina Davis
US flag and US currency

Trade

America can come first

The new president will face the great challenge of formulating and executing a global economic strategy in the face of a rising tide of domestic isolationism and protectionism.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin
American Action Forum
World map with digital icons

Trade

The big picture

The new administration’s key economic objective is to sustain economic growth in the United States. Accomplishing this objective requires a growing global economy. To achieve this precondition, the administration must establish a policy framework to coordinate macroeconomic policies, engage with international financial institutions, and support financial regulatory institutions. Accordingly, the Trump Administration should convene a high-level meeting of finance ministers of the industrial countries to implement cooperative reflation of the global economy, much along the lines of the 1985 Plaza Accord, which ratified the systematic depreciation of the U.S. dollar.
Menzie Chinn
University of Wisconsin
Franklin Roosevelt

Economic Issues

Prepare for a crisis

Financial crises happen when you least expect them, including soon after a new president takes office. Containing a crisis can require quick decision making and action before the new administration has accrued significant experience.
Barry Eichengreen
University of California–Berkeley,
People shaking hands

Economic Issues

Make friends and influence people

International finance is likely to present the administration with some of its most difficult challenges in its first year. Indeed, some of the new administration’s policies are likely to increase the possibility of international financial instability. The most pressing international economic trial facing the new American president may well be reducing this danger, and preparing to confront it should a new financial crisis hit.
Jeffry Frieden
Harvard University
Chinese dragons

Trade

Dancing with China

The problem with an isolationist interpretation of “America First” is that America is not isolated. Global withdrawal means cutting the bonds of mutual interest. From its beginnings, the U.S. has been a commercial nation, and it has been the political and economic center of the global order for the last 70 years. Making America great again requires global leadership, and leadership is interactive. China is not an obstacle to American leadership, but China policy is its greatest challenge.
Brantly Womack
Miller Center