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Russia has 100,000 troops poised to invade Ukraine, and while that scenario conjures up memories of the Cold War or other recent bouts of aggression such as the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990, the most illustrative historical parallel is actually a forgotten episode from nearly 200 years ago.

In January 1823, not unlike today, a more powerful country ruled by an authoritarian leader deployed 100,000 troops to its border with a weaker neighbor governed by a liberal constitutional regime. But on that occasion, the countries were France and Spain. French King Louis XVIII worried that Spain’s liberal constitutional regime could bleed over into his country, putting his reign at risk.

Louis XVIII’s fears shed light on the current situation in Eastern Europe. Russia has demanded that NATO commit to never admitting Ukraine as a member, but the 1823 French invasion of Spain suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s worries may be far deeper. He, too, may view a democratic neighbor as a threat to his regime and its international position.

In 1820, Spain underwent a revolution that forced its king, Ferdinand VII, to submit to a constitution and effectively retire.

This concerned Louis XVIII in two ways. Both had to do with the tendency of liberals across borders to sympathize with and help one another. The French king’s most pressing fear was that the liberals’ triumph over Ferdinand in Spain would strengthen liberalism in France.

The French Revolution and Napoleon were gone, but liberal networks still threaded across Europe, working for more uprisings and sharing information and moral support. The 1820 revolution that laid Ferdinand low had already spread to Portugal, Piedmont, Naples, Greece, and even Latin America. Louis’ fellow absolute monarchs across Europe were likewise terrified that revolution abroad could produce revolution at home.

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