The national security threats against the U.S. are as significant as and more complex than they were at the height of the Cold War or even World War II. We are not prepared to meet these threats today and could, in very short order, find ourselves in a war across multiple theaters with peer and near-peer adversaries that we could lose.   

This is the key finding of a commission established by Congress, which we chaired, to review the current National Defense Strategy, published in 2022. Our bipartisan, unanimous recommendations lay out the steps needed now to avoid this outcome.

Our country has lost its decades-long uncontested military dominance, especially in the Western Pacific. China’s military and industrial strength rivals and in some ways outpaces our own. Its cyber and space capabilities are designed to deter or prevent us from interfering with its aggressive actions in the Western Pacific. 

Despite losses in Ukraine, Russia has transformed itself through a full wartime mobilization and threatens NATO. China and Russia have forged a “no-limits” partnership and they have embraced rogue states Iran and North Korea. Russia receives the means to keep fighting in Ukraine; Iran and North Korea stand to gain weapons and expertise, along with diplomatic and economic protection. All four states seek to counter U.S. influence and their alignment presents a real risk that conflict in any of their three theaters would become a global war. 

All this comes when the Department of Defense is struggling to meet current demands. As Ukraine demonstrates, we’re straining to produce the weapons and equipment needed for one limited war, let alone the all-out conflict we could soon face. Our commission recommends a new approach, greater use of commercially available technology, fully embracing our allies and partners, and an increased investment in manufacturing capacity and our industrial workforce.

Change at the Defense Department, as hard as that is, will not be enough. Matching China’s strength requires a fully integrated approach involving all elements of national power: the strength of the U.S. military in true partnership with our first-class innovation base, plus a coordinated effort involving diplomacy, economic investment, cybersecurity, trade, education, industrial capacity, civic engagement and international cooperation.

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